Florida State Wins!

As a measure of how “over-rated” a team is, Mark Schlabach at ESPN has scored college football teams by comparing pre-season and final top 25 polls and adding a point for every rank position better and subtracting a point for every rank position worse.  Unranked teams were treated as (a somewhat spurious) #26.

 The big winner (despite mentioning Michigan, Ohio State and Notre Dame in the intro) was:

  1.  Florida State (-63)
  2. Tennessee (-58)
  3. Washington (-42)
  4. Miami (-35)
  5. Ohio State (-34)
  6. Nebraska (-34)
  7. Florida (-33 1/2)
  8. Michigan (-25)
  9. Texas (-24)
  10. Clemson (-22)

 The most under-rated team was Washington State (clearly due to under-rated quarterback Ryan Leaf back in 1997).  Of course, since Michigan was ranked #14 in the pre-season poll of 1997 and finished #1, they gained 13 points based upon the sampling window.  Next year they’ll be as “over-rated” as Miami.

The breakdown by conference was far more interesting.  The S.E.C. was actually under-rated (nobody tell Ann) and I was surprised that the Big Ten was actually only very slightly over-rated.  On the other hand, I think the Big Ten receives a disproportionate amount of news coverage so the reporters might have a better idea of where they stand.  Supporting that notion, the under-reported Pac-10 was the most underated conference.  The good ol’ ACC was the most overated (by far) but that’s not too surprising given Miami and Florida State’s positions in the individual rankings.

 Most under-rated BCS conferences:

  1. Pac-10 (+60 1/2)
  2. Big East (+9)
  3. Big 10 (+3)
  4. SEC (-12 1/2)
  5. Big 12 (-78 1/2)
  6. ACC (-102)

Chopping Seminoles


2 Responses to Florida State Wins!

  1. brianbunton says:

    And take a look at this year’s pre-season rankings. What has Florida State done to deserve consideration as a top-tier team? (We won’t mention #10 on that list.)

  2. jwambaugh says:

    Incidentally, any time “over-rated” appears in quotes there is a crowd chanting it in my mind.

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